As well as developing my own wish list for 2024, I’ve been looking at a range of different perspectives and predictions for this year and beyond to help build greater understanding of where and how we could better prepare ourselves and our teams for change.
Although it’s easy to get lost down a rabbit hole of looking at different workplace trends and tools, I’ve instead taken an over-arching view of what’s happening in our wider world and how this both creates and impacts change and uncertainty in our workplaces.
In this first of two posts, I’m exploring what’s on the radar at a macro level, with a deep-dive into a couple of these areas. In my next post, I’ll explore what the research reports are telling us about what some of this means for organisations
The global view
Sourced from the newly released World Economic Forum Global Risks report, the table below might look a little gloomy. And you may feel even more gloomy when you read the report itself.
However, my thinking is that it’s important for us to have this information so we are more likely to be able to do something about the challenges that lie ahead.
This clip from the report shows the short (2 year) and longer-term (10 year) risks. The rise of AI with the risk of related misinformation and disinformation has the potential to impact elections taking place across the globe during 2024, including in the UK and the US. Experts have previously reported that climate-related damage costs the world £16m per hour and, according to the Global Risks report, over the 10 year period, environmental risks will dominate. We’re seeing increasing social inequalities and reduced social mobility across the globe, which again has the potential to threaten political systems and drive civil unrest.
In the two-year window specifically, cyber security is on the rise – every cyber-attack has a significant bottom-line impact on organisations. Finally, interstate armed conflict - which we’ve all seen rise in the last few years - is predicted to continue in the short-term.
My overall takeaway… we’re living in an increasingly non-linear world where uncertainty – and change - is increasing. The short and longer-term risks that we’re likely to face will have impacts across the board, with a ripple effect on people and organisations.
Maintaining the macro view
With this level of turbulence, it’s even more important for organisations and leaders to keep a keen eye on that bigger picture and what’s shifting on the global stage. With complex supply chains and remote teams for example, anticipating the impact of something happening on the other side of the globe is becoming increasingly tricky, but increasingly essential.
AI and tech
In pretty much every report I read, there was mention of technology and specifically, AI. From generative AI (AI that can generate text, images or other media) being a priority for CEOs, to the energy challenges of powering the AI boom, AI will continue to have a huge impact.
The demand of making sure that organisations can keep their business needs, strategy and technology – and the skills of their people - aligned at this rapid pace should not be underestimated. There is work to do.
56% of HR leaders confirmed that their HR tech and strategy don’t match current and future business needs e.g. digital transformation
Gartner, Top 5 HR Trends and Priorities for 2024
The impacts of climate change
We’re all seeing the effects of climate change across the globe. From extreme weather events (hotter summers, wetter winters and extreme hot and cold snaps) to a 55% increase in clear air turbulence over the last 40 years that makes flights more bumpy, the effects of this change are becoming more evident. The World Economic Forum predictions highlight extreme weather as a continuing theme in the short and longer-term. There is no doubt this will put increasing pressure on organisations to support their people in navigating these impacts as well as effectively managing their operations through ESG measures.
Taking this into account, we have to recognise that all this is a backdrop for all of us. Whatever is happening at a macro, system level – wars, political instability, AI and the environment, never mind an ongoing cost of living crisis - impacts people’s wellbeing and how they show up, deliver and behave. So, creating the right working systems and environments for people that can support thriving and flourishing is essential.
In my next post, I’ll explore some of the themes that have arisen in the predictions related to organisational change, leadership and people.
Get in touch if a chat about any of these points would be useful or you’d like to share your thoughts.
Sources
World Economic Forum - Global Risks report
Gartner - Top 5 HR Trends and Priorities for 2024